Tools

Odds of outliving your term

Shows the average chance, at your age and sex, of dying during a 10- to 40-year term, and of outliving it.

Runs entirely in your browser: nothing you enter is sent or stored by this site. Results are estimates for planning, not a quote or advice.

How to use it

  1. Enter your age in whole years and choose male or female.
  2. Choose a term length from 10 to 40 years in 5-year steps.

The large figure is the chance of dying during that term, with the same odds written as "1 in N" and the chance of outliving the term. A table beneath repeats the calculation for 10, 15, 20, 25 and 30 years, with the age each term would reach.

How the math works

For each year of the term, the Social Security table gives the probability of dying within that year at that age. The tool multiplies the survival chances (1 minus each probability) across the term, and the chance of dying is 1 minus that product. The odds figure is 1 divided by the chance, rounded to a whole number.

Hypothetical example: a 35-year-old man buying a 20-year term. Multiplying 20 yearly survival chances leaves about 92.1%, so the chance of dying during the term is about 7.9%, or 1 in 13. For a 35-year-old woman the same calculation gives about 4.5%, or 1 in 22. Over 30 years the figures rise to about 17.7% (1 in 6) for the man and 10.8% (1 in 9) for the woman. Starting at 45 raises a 20-year figure for a man to about 15.1% (1 in 7).

What it assumes

  • The data is the Social Security Administration's 2023 period life table, used in the 2026 Trustees Report, for men and women separately.
  • The table covers the whole population, with no adjustment for health, smoking, weight or occupation.
  • A period table holds mortality at one year's levels for the whole term. It does not assume that death rates keep improving.
  • The result is the chance of death from any cause. It is labeled a chance of a claim, but a claim can be denied or reduced under the policy's terms, and a policy that lapses pays nothing.
  • Your age is rounded to a whole number.

Where it stops being right

  • People who pass underwriting are healthier than the general population, so their real odds of dying during the term are lower. That gap is one reason term insurance is inexpensive. The life expectancy calculator shows the same table's longer view.
  • The odds describe a group, not you. A family history, a diagnosis or a risky job can move your own odds in either direction.
  • Low odds are not a reason to skip coverage if your family depends on your income. The odds are why the coverage is affordable. See how term life insurance works.
  • The tool does not price a policy. Premiums depend on your rate class, the insurer and its expenses, and on the mortality rate the insurer expects for people like you.

If most buyers outlive the term, a return-of-premium product may look tempting. The return of premium term calculator puts a number on what that refund costs. To choose a length, use the How long a term do I need?.

Last reviewed October 4, 2026

Related guides

How term life insurance works Term life pays your beneficiaries if you die within a set period, usually 10 to 30 years, for a fixed premium. The parts, pricing and what happens at the end. How long a term should you buy: 10, 20 or 30 years Pick a term that runs until your last big obligation ends: youngest child grown, mortgage paid, retirement funded. How to find that date and when to round up. Mortality trends and how they move life insurance prices Life insurance prices follow expected death rates. What CDC and SSA data show about U.S. mortality, and why insured-population trends move prices slowly. What happens when your term life policy expires When the level period ends, coverage stops, continues at a much higher price or shrinks, depending on your contract. Your options and a timeline for deciding. Return of premium term life insurance: is it worth it Return of premium term refunds what you paid if you outlive the policy, but costs far more than ordinary term. How it works, the math, and who it suits.

Terms used here

Mortality rate The share of people of a given age expected to die within a year, often shown as deaths per 1,000; it is the foundation of life insurance pricing. Mortality table A chart showing, for each age, the probability of dying within a year and often the expected remaining lifetime, used to price and reserve for life insurance. Life expectancy The average number of additional years people of a given age are expected to live, calculated from mortality tables for a population or group. Term life insurance Life coverage for a set number of years, such as 10, 20 or 30, that pays a death benefit only if the insured dies within that period.

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